In the world of TED talks, where brilliant minds converge to share groundbreaking ideas, one speaker found himself in an unexpected position—going last. With humor and a touch of irony, he shared his initial plan to speak first, attend other talks, and absorb the best ideas to sound incredibly brainy. Little did he know that being the last speaker would lead to a profound exploration of the pace of change, crises, and the value of unconventional thinking.
Reflecting on the overarching theme of TED talks, the speaker delved into the extraordinary speeches that touched on the rapid changes affecting us demographically, politically, socially, and economically. Amidst the pressure of being the final speaker, he drew inspiration from a seemingly unlikely source—the words of Mike Tyson. The sentiment echoed by the legendary boxer about plans losing their essence when faced with a punch in the face became a metaphor for the unpredictable nature of change.
Quoting W.B. Yeats’ “The Second Coming,” written in 1919, the speaker delved into the timeless relevance of crisis. Yeats, facing a rapidly changing world with the decline of empires and the emergence of new political landscapes, penned words that resonate even a century later. “The center will not hold,” he declared, capturing the essence of societies facing upheaval.
Crisis Through the Lens of Yeats: Yeats’ poetic reflection on crisis, “Turning and turning in the widening gyre / The falcon cannot hear the falconer; / Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; / Mere anarchy is loosed on the world,” encapsulates the chaos and uncertainty that accompanies significant shifts. The speaker emphasized the contrast between what the poet foresaw and what economists, tasked with predicting the future, believed.
In the aftermath of Yeats’ words, history unfolded in a way that validated the poet’s insights. Mussolini rose to power in Italy, Stalin ascended in the Soviet Union, and Adolf Hitler orchestrated a putsch in Munich. Yeats’ vision of the center not holding proved prophetic, challenging the misplaced confidence of economists who clung to the belief in a return to normalcy.
The Unconventional Thinker’s Dilemma:
The speaker posed a compelling question: Why do poets, artists, and musicians often grasp the essence of tipping points better than economists armed with charts and graphs? Drawing from personal experiences and societal observations, he critiqued the conventional definition of intelligence ingrained in educational systems.
In the speaker’s view, the education system tends to reward a specific type of intelligence—the ability to absorb information, regurgitate it during exams, and secure top grades. This, he argued, leaves little room for recognizing the diverse intelligences present in individuals. He shared anecdotes about individuals who, labeled as lacking intelligence during their school years, went on to achieve remarkable success.
Overconfidence and the 2008 Financial Crisis:
The narrative shifted to the dangers of overconfidence, a trait often associated with those who have been consistently recognized as having the “right answers.” The speaker recounted the 2008 financial crisis, the most significant economic downturn in recent history, where the majority of economists failed to foresee the impending collapse.
Referencing the Dunning-Kruger effect—a psychological phenomenon where individuals with low ability at a task overestimate their ability—the speaker highlighted the prevalence of overconfidence, particularly among men. He amusingly shared a real-life story of a bank robber who believed lemon juice made him invisible, drawing a parallel to the overconfident economists who missed the cracks in the financial system.
The Institution’s Role in Perpetuating Overconfidence:
As the speaker delved deeper into the dynamics of institutions, he discussed how confirmation bias perpetuates a culture of groupthink. Institutions, whether they be banks, corporations, or academic circles, tend to hire individuals who think similarly to those already present. This homogeneity, coupled with a history of being consistently “right,” breeds overconfidence.
He painted a vivid picture of interview processes resembling a “Tinder for people who can do algebra,” where candidates who align with the existing mindset are favored. The consequence is groupthink, where diverse perspectives are stifled, and individuals become entrenched in their beliefs. This phenomenon, he argued, was evident in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis.
The Wisdom of Unconventional Thinkers:
Returning to the poets, artists, and musicians, the speaker advocated for embracing unconventional thinkers to navigate turbulent times. He cited JK Galbraith’s observation that conventional individuals, when faced with the choice of changing their minds or finding proof not to, often seek the latter.
Leonard Cohen’s poetic insight, “There is a crack in everything. And that is how the light gets in,” served as a poignant reminder to look for the cracks, the unconventional perspectives, to gain a holistic understanding of the world. He urged the audience to recognize that the best solutions often emerge from those who see possibilities from different angles.
The Call for a New Perspective:
In a thought-provoking conclusion, the speaker encouraged a shift in perspective. Rather than relying solely on the insights of economists, he proposed listening more to the poets, the artists, and the musicians—the unconventional thinkers who, by nature, offer a different lens through which to view the world.
He underscored the importance of including these unconventional voices in the decision-making processes of society. The call to “mandate the best” from Yeats was a plea to recognize the value of diverse intelligences, challenging the traditional hierarchy that often marginalizes those who think differently.
Conclusion:
As the TED talk drew to a close, the audience was left with a powerful idea worth spreading—a call to understand the world more clearly by listening less to conventional voices and more to those who see the possibilities in the cracks. The wisdom of poets, artists, and musicians, often dismissed in traditional educational and institutional settings, emerged as a beacon of insight in navigating the complexities of our ever-changing world. In embracing unconventional thinking, we may find the light that seeps through the cracks, illuminating new paths forward.